[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
W ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NE. CURRENTLY A 1011
MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N76W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH THE LOW CENTER ALONG 33N75W 26N79W 23N81W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT PERSIST E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS ALONG A 160 NM WIDE SWATH FROM 18N82W ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
AND THE NW/CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NEAR 30N73W. SHOWERS CONTINUE N OF
30N AND WRAP AROUND THE N SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER. HEAVY SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN HITTING CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS FOR OVER 24
HOURS. REPORTS FROM CENTRAL CUBA INDICATE RAINFALL TOTALS
RANGING FROM 6-20 INCHES WHICH HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES. HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THIS AREA.
FREEPORT BAHAMAS REPORTED A 24-HOUR TOTAL OF 9.7 INCHES. LUCKILY
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS NOW SHIFTED E OF FREEPORT. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES STRONG WINDS UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WHILE THE LOW CENTER IS NOT WELL
DEFINED AT THIS TIME...UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF
THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THIS TIME
PERIOD. INTERESTS IN THE SE UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N42W TO 6N43W MOVING W AT 15-20 KTS.
THE WAVE LIES ON THE W SIDE OF A SURGE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE DUE TO A DRY ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING
THE WAVE ALONG WITH SAHARAN DUST.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N63W TO 10N65W MOVING W THROUGH THE
SE CARIBBEAN AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE ERN SIDE OF AN
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-15N BETWEEN 65W-67W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SENEGAL AT 13N16W CONTINUING ACROSS ATLC WATER ALONG 6N20W
5N32W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-5N BETWEEN 19W-25W...FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 28W-33W...AND FROM
5N-7N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS MOVING INTO THE WRN GULF EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC
FLOW IS AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS OVER
THE FAR WRN GULF. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE GULF THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CENTRAL CUBA CONTINUES TO GET PUMMELED WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE W ATLC AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 78W-83W
COVERING BOTH CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS
FROM S OF WRN CUBA NEAR 21N84W TO NRN HONDURAS AT 16N87W. NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N69W...WHICH IS
MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS PRESENT OVER THE ERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SE
CARIBBEAN...BUT IS CAUSING ONLY A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 65W-67W. MOIST
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL REMAIN AS RAIN CONTINUES
TO FALL. SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SE AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
WWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE W ATLC. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E
OF THE SYSTEM IS ALONG 21N70W TO 42N66W SUPPORTING SURFACE
RIDGING AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 34N63W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS INTO THE RIDGE ALONG 32N55W TO 29N60W CAUSING NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 41N40W TO 30N53W CONTINUING TO N OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 7N56W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER W AFRICA
NEAR 19N9W COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING A PAIR
OF SURFACE HIGHS. A 1026 MB HIGH IS NEAR 33N40W...AND A 1028 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 34N32W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO
50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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