[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 33N76W TO 30N78W TO A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N78W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N85W...THROUGH THE GULF
OF HONDURAS TO WESTERN EL SALVADOR. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W...AND FROM
18N TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND 83W.
THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO COVERS PARTS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. THIS AREA HAS BEEN CLOUDY AND RAINY FOR THE
LAST FOUR TO FIVE DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THE LOW CENTER SHOULD
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN ON SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA. RESIDENTS
WHO LIVE ALONG AND/OR WHO OWN PROPERTY THAT IS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE THAT IS IN YOUR AREA FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SITUATION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N41W 4N43W. ANY
NEARBY PRECIPITATION ALSO IS PART OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N61W 12N63W 8N63W IN
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS 16N BETWEEN
58W AND 70W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE GUINEA-BISSAU COAST NEAR
12N16W TO 6N20W TO 4N32W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N32W TO 3N41W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N
TO 7N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG TO THE EAST OF 6W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 26W AND
33W AND FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 42W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE BUD IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND EVEN
POSSIBLY REACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS
THE ENTIRE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM FLORIDA...JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...NORTHWARD...BEYOND THE AREA
THAT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. A 1015 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N87W. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE MARINE
WEATHER TO THE WEST OF 88W FOR 20 KNOT WINDS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST
OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS RIDING ON TOP OF THE CYCLONIC
FLOW. THE RIDGE RUNS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA...BEYOND CUBA AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 15N47W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 8N60W. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS ALONG 14N61W 12N63W 8N63W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS 16N BETWEEN 58W AND 70W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR
THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION THAT STILL ARE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG
9N75W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 10N86W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 74W AND
81W...INCLUDING IN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA AND THE SURROUNDING
WATERS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND THE 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...BETWEEN
66W AND 81W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 22N37W
15N47W AND 8N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED
THROUGH 32N43W TO 28N41W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 34N33W. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
33N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 36N53W 31N56W. A 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N64W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER...AND THE TRADEWIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 17N BETWEEN 44W AND 57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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