[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10N34W 6N36W 1N37W.
ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO IS PART OF THE ITCZ
PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N56W 10N57W...TO THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF GUYANA THAT IS NEAR 7N57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 8N TO 14N
BETWEEN 54W AND 66W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 21N35W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 13N50W...TO 12N64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IS INTERACTING WITH THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 8N13W
TO 4N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N20W TO 3N25W 4N28W 1N35W
1N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 30W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 54W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
INTERACTING WITH THE 14N56W 7N57W TROPICAL WAVE.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 20N. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR APPEARS IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...EVEN PUSHING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS AFFECTED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA KEYS. THE
COMPARATIVELY DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...INCLUDING SOUTH FLORIDA...
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...HAVE BEEN PUSHED EASTWARD BY THE DRIER
AIR. THE DRIER AIR NOW IS TO THE EAST OF 32N77W 25N80W 20N83W
16N86W ALONG THE HONDURAS COAST. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...MOVING AROUND A 1013 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N87W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT4...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE MARINE WEATHER
FOR 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE WEST OF 95W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA...BEYOND CUBA TO THE EAST OF 80W...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
RUNS FROM 21N35W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 13N50W...TO 12N64W IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TOWARD THE
AREA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA/NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...WITH THE RIDGE AND THE SURFACE TROUGH.
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 54W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 66W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS...ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
22N81W. THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
18N83W AND CENTRAL HONDURAS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF CUBA
BETWEEN 78W AND 81W...BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA. THE PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS OCCURRING IN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS ALONG 9N76W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 10N84W IN COSTA RICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH
CONTINUES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM COSTA RICA INTO
WESTERN GUATEMALA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF
76W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND THE 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...EITHER TO
THE EAST OF 77W OR TO THE WEST OF 77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 26N67W BEYOND 32N53W. THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN IN MUCH OF THE SAME AREA FOR THE LAST
FEW DAYS...UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SOME BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 21N35W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 13N50W...TO 12N64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 50W...WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N20N 28N30W
27N42W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N44W TO 30N57W 30N72W. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE WEST OF 65W...WITH
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-FLORIDA STRAITS SURFACE TROUGH...
AND TO THE WEST OF 45W WITH TRADE WIND FLOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net