[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240609
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10N33W 6N35W 1N36W.
ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO IS PART OF THE ITCZ
PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N54W 8N55W...TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF SURINAME THAT IS NEAR 5N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N TO
13N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM
21N35W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 13N50W...TO 12N64W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IS INTERACTING WITH
THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 8N12W
TO 4N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N17W TO 2N23W 5N30W 3N40W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 48W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
1S50W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 5N TO 9N
BETWEEN 15W AND 22W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE
EAST OF 28W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN
28W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO
THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...EVEN JUST TO THE EAST OF
BARBADOS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE 12N54W
5N56W TROPICAL WAVE.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 21N. EARLIER CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS TAKING PLACE FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA HAS DISSIPATED. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR APPEARS IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...
EVEN PUSHING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN FLORIDA FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO
THE WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
IS AFFECTED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE
COMPARATIVELY DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN
PUSHED EASTWARD BY THE DRIER AIR...NOW TO THE EAST OF 30N77W
23N80W IN CUBA...16N85W ALONG THE HONDURAS COAST.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...MOVING AROUND A 1013 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 28N88W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS
ABOUT THE MARINE WEATHER FOR 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE WEST OF 95W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA...BEYOND CUBA TO THE EAST OF 80W...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
RUNS FROM 21N35W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 13N50W...TO 12N64W IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TOWARD THE
AREA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA/NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...WITH THE RIDGE AND THE SURFACE TROUGH.
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 65W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS...ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA...TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
21N83W. THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
18N84W AND NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL HONDURAS. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 78W AND
80W...IN EASTERN CUBA AND BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE WATERS AND CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 81W AND 92W. THE MONSOON TROUGH
IS ALONG 9N76W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN PANAMA...
BEYOND 10N84W IN COSTA RICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM COSTA RICA INTO WESTERN
GUATEMALA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND THE 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...
TO THE EAST OF 77W...AND TO THE WEST OF 77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 26N67W BEYOND 32N53W. THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN IN MUCH OF THE SAME AREA FOR THE LAST
FEW DAYS...UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SOME BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 21N35W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 13N50W...TO 12N64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 50W...WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N22N 28N30W 27N42W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N44W TO 28N60W 28N76W. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE WEST OF 72W...WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND TO THE WEST OF 50W
WITH TRADE WIND FLOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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