[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N28W 7N30W 2N30W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 26W AND
31W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N50W 10N51W...
TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA THAT IS NEAR 5N52W.
THE POSITION OF THIS WAVE WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 30N37W TO
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA IS INTERACTING WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 48W AND 56W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE COASTAL BORDER OF SENEGAL
AND GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 6N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N17W
TO 4N19W AND 4N28W...6N32W 7N43W 6N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 26W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO EAST TEXAS.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS COASTAL AREAS
BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 31N BETWEEN 77W
AND 79W. THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS AFFECTED BY
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N89W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM HONDURAS BEYOND THE EASTERN HALF
OF CUBA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 23N45W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. THE TROUGH STARTS IN WESTERN NICARAGUA AND IT PASSES
THROUGH CENTRAL HONDURAS...REACHING A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N86W ALONG THE HONDURAS COAST. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
20N83W...AND THE TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...TO THE FLORIDA
KEYS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EASTERN HONDURAS...NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA...AND EASTERN HONDURAS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EAST CENTRAL COASTAL
NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N BETWEEN 75W AND BEYOND
81W. THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM
SIX HOURS AGO NOW IS LIMITED TO SOME CELLS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 8N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 180 TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH BERMUDA TO 27N72W BEYOND CENTRAL CUBA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 30N
TO THE EAST OF 50W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A TROUGH THAT IS TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N25W TO 30N30W 29N40W BEYOND 32N48W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 75 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
THROUGH 30N37W TO 23N45W...ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS...INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 16N...
MOVING AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N20W...TO 26N30W
26N46W...AND BEYOND A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
33N53W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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