[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N27W 6N29W 2N29W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 24W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N52W 10N54W...TO
THE NORTHERN COAST OF SURINAME NEAR 6N55W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 30N37W TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA IS
INTERACTING WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH STOPS IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 3N13N
AND IT CONTINUES TO 4N20W 6N25W 1N43W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 47W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 8N TO THE EAST OF 25W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE
WEST OF 48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF
10N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A GEORGIA CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA...AND IT CONTINUES ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO EAST TEXAS. ANY REMAINING CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 31N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W...
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
IS AFFECTED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N94W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM HONDURAS BEYOND THE EASTERN HALF
OF CUBA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 23N45W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. THE TROUGH STARTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...REACHING
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N84W...CROSSING
THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND
86W...FROM 20N TO CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND 82W...AND IN EXTREME
NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
EAST CENTRAL COASTAL NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG
7N/8N BETWEEN 74W AND BEYOND 82W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 5N TO 10N
BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND TROUGH IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 180 TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH BERMUDA TO 27N72W BEYOND CENTRAL CUBA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 30N
TO THE EAST OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH
30N37W TO 23N45W...ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS...INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 15N...
MOVING AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N20W...TO 27N32W
28N45W...AND BEYOND A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
33N53W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
NORTH OF 29N...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 22N/23N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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