[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 16N MOVING W AT 10 KT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 18W-23W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 7N23W TO 3N40W TO N BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND 8W. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 35W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
30N92W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ELSEWHERE...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...W CUBA...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 86W
AND S OF 24N. SURFACE WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE S GULF S OF
24N. A 70-90 KT UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.
EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER SE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
CENTRAL HONDURAS ALONG 87W. A 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE
TROUGH AXIS OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 18N87W. BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN
82W-84W. MORE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS N OF 16N
BETWEEN 64W-69W. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER HONDURAS NEAR 14N87W.
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
65W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN AND
SHOWERS TO BE OVER HISPANIOLA AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA FROM
31N78W TO 30N81W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N76W TO
27N80W. 10 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE TROUGH. A LARGE 1034
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 42N39W.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND W ATLANTIC
W OF 30W. IN THE TROPICS...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 58W-60W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTH
CAROLINA NEAR 34N78W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW CENTER
IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 22N BETWEEN 66W-70W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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