[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W/18W TO THE SOUTH OF 14W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 6N
TO 8N BETWEEN 15W AND 17W.

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 18N52W 13N59W 8N59W FOR THE
18/0000 UTC SURFACE MAP HAS MOVED INLAND IN SOUTH AMERICA...
AND IT IS DIFFUSE FOR THE 18/0600 UTC MAP. SOME OF THE ENERGY
THAT WAS ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE NOW IS MIXED WITH
THE ENERGY OF THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN
THAT AREA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO LAND BETWEEN 57W
AND 59W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT REACH THE AFRICA COAST. IT REMAINS
INLAND FOR THIS MAP ANALYSIS TIME. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 6N20W 5N30W
3N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 3N TO THE EAST OF 5W...AND FROM
4N TO 6N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
TO THE EAST OF 12W...AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 6N20W 5N30W 5N40W 3N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST
OF 65W...AND INCLUDING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...AND TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE SOUTH OF 27N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF 26N82W 22N88W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
25N TO 32N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
THE WEST OF 68W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES...NOW FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
TO 25N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NICARAGUA THROUGH
HONDURAS...TO A 1010 MB NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N87W...ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 12N80W.
BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS FLORIDA FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS COURTESY OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA-BEYOND CUBA RIDGE. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT REACHES WESTERN NICARAGUA...MAY BE
HELPING THE STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT NOW IS MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO EL SALVADOR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 18N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 13N59W...TOWARD
THE COAST OF NORTHERN GUYANA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W
AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO LAND BETWEEN 57W AND 59W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATERS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N TO WEST OF 50W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N FROM 74W
IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 81W IN PANAMA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS...COVERS COLOMBIA AND THE
PANAMA COASTAL WATERS FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 74W AND 84W. THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...
FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 8 FEET TO THE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 18N59W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 13N59W...TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTHERN GUYANA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N
TO 20N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO LAND BETWEEN 57W
AND 59W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATERS ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N TO WEST OF 50W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 11N. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 9 FEET IN THE BROAD AREA
OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 28N BETWEEN 35W
AND 71W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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