[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 142357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA AT 11N15W CROSSING INTO THE E ATLC TO 6N24W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 6N24W ALONG 4N37W TO THE NRN COAST OF BRAZIL AT
3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-8N BETWEEN 14W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MAINLY WSWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING
WITH DRY AIR COVERING THE NW CORNER AND MOIST AIR COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 31N85W TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 27N87W 23N92W 18N92W...AS OF 2100 UTC. CLUSTERS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIE MAINLY E OF THE BOUNDARY COVERING
THE E AND SE GULF INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND WRN CUBA. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXTEND 75 NM
W OF THE AXIS.S THE NW GULF IS MAINLY DRY DUE TO THE DRY AIR
ALOFT AND INFLUENCED BY SURFACE RIDGING TO THE N. THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY
ACROSS GEORGIA. SINCE THE MAIN SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT HAS MOVED
TO THE E...THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY UNTIL A LONGWAVE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE BASIN FROM THE W AND WILL MOVE THE
BOUNDARY EWD AS A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVER THE ERN GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMPACTING MOST OF THE NRN CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS INCLUDING CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. THIS IS
LIKELY ATTRIBUTED TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
ACROSS THE NW GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND CURRENTLY IS PARALLEL TO NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA ALONG 16N82W 9N82W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN COMBINATION WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE AND INFLUENCE FROM THE E PACIFIC MONSOON
TROUGH...IS HELPING PRODUCE STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WWD INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE CENTRAL AND ERN
CARIBBEAN ARE EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS BESIDES THE
SHOWERS MENTIONED ACROSS THE NRN ISLANDS. TRADEWIND FLOW OF
15-20 KTS IS PRESENT. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 67W.
EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER THE SW GULF FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WHILE SURFACE RIDGING IS COVERING THE FAR W ATLC...MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA W
OF 74W INCLUDING THE WRN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE E SIDE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THE NW ATLC IS
COVERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 63W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE
RIDGE. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE S ALONG 66W
SUPPORTS A WEAK 1022 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 32N58W. A STATIONARY
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ALONG 31N55W 29N56W 27N64W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.
FARTHER S...TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST IS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
ALONG 23N65W TO 18N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM TO
THE E. THE SECOND TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG
19N55W TO 15N55W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 160 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
INFLUENCED BY SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS TO
NEAR 28N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 8N38W PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN
TROPICAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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