[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 6N22W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 6N22W TO 4N40W TO N BRAZIL NEAR 3N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 2N-8N
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 13W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 30W-35W...AND FROM 1N-3N
BETWEEN 50W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AT 30N85W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 25N90W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 19N93W. LIGHTNING
IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONTS.
SURFACE WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE GULF...ON BOTH SIDES
OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER
THE GULF WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE E GULF
E OF 90W...AND INLAND OVER TEXAS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
W GULF W OF 90W TO TEXAS. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO BE STATIONARY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH PREFRONTAL
RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING E.
FURTHER S...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG
15N80W 8N82W MOVING W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S
OF 15N BETWEEN 75W-85W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 23N64W 16N65W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A RELATIVELY TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
37N65W. A 1020 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N57W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW ALONG 51N55W 28N58W 26N64W. RAIN
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1009 MB
NON TROPICAL LOW IS CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N33W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THE SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT...OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E AT 10-15
KT...AND FOR THE E ATLANTIC LOW TO MOVE NE AT 10 KT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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