[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141114
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL
NEAR 13N17W TO 12N19W 7N21W 5N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
5N24W TO 5N42W AND 4N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 2W AND 7W...
ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE FROM 4N TO 7N
BETWEEN 10W AND 12W...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 53W AND 54W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 3N TO 7N
BETWEEN 12W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO
MEXICO NEAR 21N98W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO THE MEXICO
COAST NEAR 21N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACCOMPANYING A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WEAK AND
COMPARATIVELY SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LOST AND/OR
CONTINUES TO LOSE ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH TIME. THE FRONT
STARTS AS COLD THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 26N89W IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO...BECOMING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM
26N89W TO 24N91W AND 22N92W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION STILL IS
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS AROUND
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 21N59W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 17N64W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N70W. A SEPARATE AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ORIGINATES IN EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ISLANDS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N...AND BEYOND...INTO
THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO
23N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W...FROM HISPANIOLA INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE WEST OF 70W. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPILLS FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS IT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 80W/81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 16N. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG
11N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N78W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 8N82W IN
PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 73W
AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE
AREA FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FEET... ROUGHLY TO THE SOUTH OF 18N
BETWEEN 65W AND 82W...FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N54W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO A 31N51W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 28N53W AND
25N61W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N55W TO 28N60W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 28N60W TO
26N66W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N54W 29N57W 28N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 21N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 17N64W IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N62W
20N63W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W
AND 72W...FROM HISPANIOLA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
36N66W...TO 29N75W...AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 28N31W 24N39W
TO 20N40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 34N33W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND
TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 55W REGARDING TRADEWIND FLOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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