[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140529
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N15W
TO 7N17W AND 5N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N22W TO 5N34W AND
4N44W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND
11W...AND FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 51W AND 53W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 11W AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS TO MEXICO
NEAR 21N99W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE MEXICO
COAST NEAR 21N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACCOMPANYING A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
A WEAK AND COMPARATIVELY SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
LOST AND/OR CONTINUES TO LOSE ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH TIME.
THE FRONT STARTS AS COLD THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 27N88W
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...BECOMING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
FROM 27N88W TO 24N91W AND 22N92W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION STILL
IS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 80W AND 88W. EARLIER
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN MEXICO BETWEEN 90W
AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. SOME PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
OR JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 21N59W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 17N64W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N70W. A SEPARATE AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ORIGINATES IN EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ISLANDS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N...AND BEYOND...INTO
THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO
23N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W...FROM HISPANIOLA INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE WEST OF 70W. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPILLS FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS IT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N77W
IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND WESTERN PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 76W AND 86W...SPANNING
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 FEET...ROUGHLY TO THE SOUTH OF 18N
BETWEEN 64W AND 85W...FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 36N54W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO A 31N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 28N56W AND
25N61W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N56W TO 28N60W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 28N60W TO
26N66W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N54W 29N56W 28N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 21N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 17N64W IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N60W
23N63W 20N64W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN
60W AND 72W...FROM HISPANIOLA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
36N65W...TO 33N73W...AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 29N. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 28N31W 24N39W TO
21N42W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N34W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR DETAILS WIND AND SEAS IN THREE AREAS. ONE AREA PERTAINS TO
THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET NEAR THE
32N56W 26N66W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND AREA IS TO THE NORTH
OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 45W FOR WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS...BUT
SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 FEET. THE THIRD AREA IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 45W REGARDING TRADEWIND FLOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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