[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081137
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W TO 5N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N17W TO 3N27W TO 2N39W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 2N
TO 4N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 5W...FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN
13W AND 18W...FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 28W AND 30W...FROM 4N TO 6N
BETWEEN 25W AND 32W...FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 34W AND 37W...AND
FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 36W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN MEXICO LEADS TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE WEST OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A TROUGH
THAT IS ORIENTED FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. THIS AREA INCLUDES SOUTH FLORIDA...PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A STATIONARY
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N77W...TO THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 29N...INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 78W AND 79W. NO AREAS OF 20 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AT THE PRESENT TIME
NOR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING
MOISTURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE THAT STARTS NEAR 10N68W IN COASTAL VENEZUELA...BEYOND
15N60W INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...FROM
12N TO 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W...FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 57W AND
60W...FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 61W AND 63W...AND FROM 12N TO 13N
BETWEEN 68W AND 69W NEAR THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N60W TO 16N64W
TO 11N70W AT THE VENEZUELA COAST. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. NO AREAS OF 20 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AT THE PRESENT TIME
NOR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 36N45W.
ONE LARGE-SCALE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS AROUND THIS
35N47W CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 39W AND 64W.
A SECOND AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W. REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO ARE ALONG 24N60W-PUERTO RICO. THE
CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N41W
27N50W 26N60W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
29N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO TO
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 29N...TO 30N84W IN NORTHERN FLORIDA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 78W AND 79W...AND FROM 28N TO 29N
BETWEEN 67W AND 70W...AND WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
26N48W 30N41W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...
TO THE WEST OF 62W. THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW IS PUSHING MOISTURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WITHIN
360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT STARTS NEAR 10N68W IN
COASTAL VENEZUELA...THROUGH 15N60W 18N54W 23N47W 26N29W BEYOND
30N13W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 60W AND
61W...FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W...AND FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 61W AND 63W. A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
25N78W IN ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING AROUND A RIDGE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N15W...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 25N23W...TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
21N36W...TO 15N53W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. ONE
AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FEET IS
RELATED TO THE 32N41W 26N60W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND AREA
OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET IS RELATED TO THE
1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT









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