[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO
5N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N19W TO 3N28W 2N40W...TO THE
EQUATOR ALONG 49W...JUST OFF THE COAST OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N12W 4N20W
3N26W 3N36W 4N46W...AND FROM 2N TO 5N TO THE EAST OF 6W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN MEXICO LEADS TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE WEST OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A TROUGH
THAT IS ORIENTED FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. THIS AREA INCLUDES SOUTH FLORIDA...PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS THAT ARE TO THE WEST
OF 76W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 28N77W...TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 29N...INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS...SOME
DISSIPATING WITH TIME...ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST...FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W.
NO AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED
AT THE PRESENT TIME NOR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING
MOISTURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE THAT STARTS NEAR 10N68W IN COASTAL VENEZUELA...BEYOND
15N60W INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. THIS AREA
INCLUDES AREAS THAT ARE CLOSE TO GUADELOUPE...THE DOMINICA
PASSAGE...AND DOMINICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W.
A SURFACE CONTINUES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N60W TO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS NEAR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...
SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT...TO 14N64W...CURVING
TO THE VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 12N70W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. NO AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AT THE PRESENT TIME NOR
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 35N47W.
ONE LARGE-SCALE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS AROUND THIS
35N47W CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 39W AND 63W.
A SECOND AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 62W AND 80W. REMNANTS OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO ARE ALONG 24N60W-PUERTO
RICO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N44W 28N50W 26N60W 28N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
28N65W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N69W.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 28N76W. THE FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 28N76W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR
29N...TO 30N84W IN NORTHERN FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 65W AND
71W...AND FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO THE WEST OF 62W. THE UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING MOISTURE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THAT STARTS NEAR 10N68W IN COASTAL VENEZUELA...THROUGH 15N60W
18N54W 23N47W 26N29W BEYOND 30N13W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. THIS AREA
INCLUDES AREAS THAT ARE CLOSE TO GUADELOUPE...THE DOMINICA
PASSAGE...AND DOMINICA. A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
25N78W IN NORTHERN ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING AROUND
A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N16W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N23W...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 20N38W...TO 15N53W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. ONE AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING
11 FEET IS RELATED TO THE 32N44W 29N69W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
SECOND AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET IS
RELATED TO THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N69W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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