[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO
4N13W AND 3N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N17W TO 2N32W...INTO
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 1W AND
2W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 12W AND 22W...ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 22W TO THE SOUTH OF 5N22W 7N33W 11N49W
10N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A RIDGE
SPANS MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF
WATERS. SOME OF THAT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW...THAT
IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 90W...IS RELATED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH 30N80W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM
06/2015 UTC...FROM THE NORTHERN FLORIDA BORDER INTO SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED.
SCATTERED LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE GULF WATERS THAT
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER. NO AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE
OBSERVED AT THE PRESENT TIME NOR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N70W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 16N75W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST
OF THE 23N70W 16N75W TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
20N61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
16N67W TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 12N70W. A MIDDLE
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS NEAR 22N67W. THIS
POSITION IS ABOUT 250 NM TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND ABOUT 180 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
ARE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N62W 14N70W
12N76W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THIS AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/0000 UTC ARE
0.35 INCHES IN CURACAO...AND 0.23 INCHES IN GUADELOUPE. THE
MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COLOMBIA NEAR 8N77W TO PANAMA NEAR
8N81W...INTO NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA NEAR 11N86W...AND THEN INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND BEYOND 9N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS INLAND AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS TO
THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 77W. NO AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AT THE PRESENT TIME NOR
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF ENERGY
TO THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF A COLD FRONT...THAT
EXTENDS FROM A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N51W
TO 30N52W 28N56W 29N62W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 29N62W TO 32N70W...TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N73W TO 29N77W BEYOND 30N80W...ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.
THE TROUGH IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH 32N60W TO 28N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W...AND FROM 29N TO 30N
BETWEEN 79W AND 80W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO
27N45W TO 22N57W. THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW IS PUSHING MOISTURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WITHIN
300 TO 400 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT START NEAR 10N63W
IN COASTAL VENEZUELA...THROUGH 15N57W 20N50W 22N40W 26N29W
BEYOND 32N25W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 24N72W...ABOUT 130 NM TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOVING AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N14W...TO A 1021 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N19W...TO 21N30W 17N38W TO
13N52W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT TWO COLD FRONTS. ONE AREA OF 20 KNOT
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING TO 12 FEET IS RELATED TO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO
27N56W TO 30N63W. THE SECOND AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET IS RELATED TO THE 30N73W 29N77W 30N85W COLD
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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