[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 062347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2335 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W AND CONTINUES TO
3N18W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES WESTWARD ALONG 2N35W TO
THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
AXIS AND MONSOON TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OFF THE COAST OF ALABAMA FROM
29N87W TO 27N88W. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING A FEW LOW-TOP
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS. COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION OVER THIS
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT
AT THE PANHANDLE COAST FROM APALACHEE BAY TO PENSACOLA.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED TO A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NRN GULF LATE WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECT
SIGNIFICANT DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS
EVENING. THE LARGE SCALE SURFACE WIND PATTERN FROM MARINE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS WIDE TROUGHINESS AROUND A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE AREA...ANALYZED ALONG THE
US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE WRN COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N70W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED ON THE FAR ERN BASIN INCLUDING THE
LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OVER THIS GROUP OF
ISLANDS. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE
WRN ATLC DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A COMPLEX SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF OUR
AREA. THE FIRST WRN-MOST LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N73W. A SECOND
LOW IS NEAR 31N65W AND A THIRD ONE NEAR 32N53W. THESE SET OF
LOWS ARE CONNECTED BY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...STARTING WITH THE
LEADING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED TO THE FARTHEST EAST LOW ALONG
32N53W TO 28N58W TO 31N65W TO 32N70W TO THE WRN-MOST LOW NEAR
31N73W...THEN WESTWARD TO THE NRN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
JACKSONVILLE. WHILE WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50-80 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FOCUSED AROUND THE WRN-MOST LOW. THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM OF LOW AND FRONTS WILL WEAKEN AND
DRIFT N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE MEAN TIME...THE SAME
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 32N37W TO 23N57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WELL REMOVED TO THE
EAST OF THE FRONT COVERING N OF 22N W OF 30W...WHERE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD E/W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
IN THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 7N45W...AND A SURFACE 1020 MB HIGH N OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGESTS THE CONVECTION
RELATED TO THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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