[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060504
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N11W AND CONTINUES TO 3N20W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 3N20W TO 4N40N TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 11W-12W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 35W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N74W
PRODUCING 5-10 KT SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS HOWEVER OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND OVER NE MEXICO. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 21N87W
15N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF WHILE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER TEXAS AND
NE MEXICO. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR UPPER LEVEL WINDS
TO BECOME ZONAL. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING WITH
POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE E GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND N VENEZUELA
N OF 5N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...EL SALVADOR...AND HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N60W TO N COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF 71W TO INCLUDE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. SW UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO RIDGING. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N74W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N55W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
19N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
30N40W TO 27N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
27N25W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE N END OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS PRODUCING
BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
17N-26N BETWEEN 35W-52W. EXPECT...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE E
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA





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