[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC ALONG THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES TO
5N17W TO 4N25W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 6N38W TO
THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 16W-25W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 32W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF BASIN THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...AT SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED OVER THE NE BASIN FROM 30N86W TO 24N87W. THIS FEATURE
IS GENERATING A FEW LOW-TOP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 130 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF DUE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED TO THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECT
SIGNIFICANT DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE ERN AND S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BASINS THIS EVENING. THE LARGE SCALE SURFACE WIND PATTERN FROM
MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS WIDE TROUGHINESS AROUND A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE AREA...ANALYZED ALONG
ANGUILLA TO A 1008 MB LOW OVER THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR
12N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 110 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SIMILAR ACTIVITY
IS OVER THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF PANAMA AND WRN COLOMBIA BETWEEN
74W-83W...AS THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER THESE
TERRITORIES. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA DUE
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED TO AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS JUST A FEW MILES
N OF NASSAU. THIS FEATURE IS KEEPING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF
THE WRN ATLC THIS EVENING. A BROAD DEEP OCCLUDED LOW WOBBLES
OVER THE N-ATLC. THE SRN EXTENSION OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW ENTERS THE REGION ALONG 30N40W TO 27N55W
WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS REVEALED SW
WINDS UP TO 20 KT WITHIN 130 NM E OF THE FRONT. TO THE SE OF
THIS FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 23N55W INTO THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN ALONG THE ISLAND OF ANGUILLA. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. SOME OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE
ALSO EXTENDS BEYOND 150 NM...FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN
44W-52W...WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
MAXIMIZED. THE REMAINDER S OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA IS
DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN THE DEEP
TROPICS NEAR 7N42W...AND A SURFACE 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N24W.
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGESTS THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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