[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAR 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 2N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N22W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 31W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 2S49W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N
BETWEEN 11W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
EQ-3N BETWEEN 29W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY EXTENDING
FROM A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTED BY BROAD UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE ERN CONUS WHICH IS PROVIDING SWLY FLOW OVER THE
GULF. HOWEVER...A FEW SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS IN THE SWLY FLOW
ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING A COUPLE AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST AREA IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 85W-88W
WHERE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT. THE
SECOND BURST IS IN THE NW GULF WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 92W-96W. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THE SW GULF ALONG 23N92W TO 18N94W...BUT
IS CAUSING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER
COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH MOSTLY SE-S SURFACE WINDS
OF 5-15 KTS...BESIDES NEAR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THE
AREAS OF ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AST THEY MOVE NE-E.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FAIR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY DUE TO MOSTLY DRY
AIR ALOFT IN SW-W FLOW. A FEW PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS INCLUDING MUCH
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ESPECIALLY PUERTO RICO WHERE RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF THE ISLAND.
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH SOME
STRONGER WINDS AROUND THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE STRONGER
WINDS ARE CAUSING SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ERN CONUS SUPPORTS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR
26N69W...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE N EXTENDING FROM CANADA IS SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT THAT SKIMS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N59W 30N66W
32N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE AXIS. ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 38W SUPPORTS
ANOTHER WEAK 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 28N47W PROVIDING MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS AROUND THE ERN
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 48N42W TO 36N27W SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N30W TO 29N33W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 23N45W AND DISSIPATES TO 18N52W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS. A NARROW
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE E ALONG 24W SUPPORTING A 1023 MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 30N25W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING ALSO COVERS THE
TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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