[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAR 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE AT 7N12W TO 3N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N16W TO
1N20W TO EQ30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 1S46W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 10W-24W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-3S BETWEEN 24W-34W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 1N-1S
BETWEEN 46W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
AXIS ALONG 30N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S TEXAS
AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 95W-98W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 96W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. 10-15 KT SE WINDS
PREVAILS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF AND SURROUNDING LANDMASS ESPECIALLY W OF 90W. EXPECT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO PREVAIL OVER THE GULF FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE N GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N90W TO
16N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM W OF THE TROUGH. A
1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N73W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
72W-77W. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATED COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...THE MONA
PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HONDURAS...AND THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND W PANAMA. A RATHER
LAX SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW PREVAILS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED
SHOWERS FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS
INLAND OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N47W. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH TO N FLORIDA
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 30N33W TO 20N47W AND DISSIPATING TO E OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N55W. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N26W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A PLUME OF AFRICAN
DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N E OF 30W AS NOTED FROM THE
GOES-R PG DUST IMAGERY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 40W-65W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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