[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281033
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE AT 7N12W TO 3N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N14W TO
3N25W TO S OF THE EQUATOR AT 1S40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT
2S45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN 12W-26W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N
BETWEEN 33W-37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 1N-3S BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA AT 34N75W IS PRODUCING SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. 10-15 KT SE WINDS ARE NOTED
OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND
HOWEVER OVER S TEXAS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 98W-102W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OVER TEXAS...N MEXICO...AND THE NW GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING TO PREVAIL OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S TEXAS...NE MEXICO...AND THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE...AS WELL AS OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF...WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATED COLD FRONT
IS PRODUCING RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...THE MONA
PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS MOVING S.
ELSEWHERE...RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER NICARAGUA...AND
THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND W PANAMA. A RATHER LAX SURFACE
GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...SW FLOW PREVAILS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE NOTED OVER SOUTH AMERICA... AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS FROM HISPANIOLA TO
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA
RICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N53W
TO 24N60W TO 22N70W AND DISSIPATING TO THE SRN BAHAMAS AT
22N75W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N50W TO 20N57W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 25N-30N
BETWEEN 47W-51W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
33N33W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 25W AS NOTED FROM THE GOES-R PG
DUST IMAGERY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N
OF 25N BETWEEN 60W-80W SUPPORTING THE W ATLANTIC FRONT. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 35W.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E TO 30N41W
AND EXTEND S TO 17N50W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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