[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280519
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE AT 7N12W TO 3N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N17W TO
2N30W TO S OF THE EQUATOR AT 2S40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT
2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
17W-20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4S
BETWEEN 38W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. 10-15 KT SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND HOWEVER
OVER S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 97W-100W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OVER TEXAS...N MEXICO...AND THE NW GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING TO PREVAIL OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S TEXAS...NE MEXICO...AND THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE...AS WELL AS OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF...WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0300 UTC...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATED COLD FRONT
IS PRODUCING RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE MONA
PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS MOVING S. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND GUATEMALA FROM 19N90W TO 15N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITH
45 NM OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER NICARAGUA...AND THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND W PANAMA. A
RATHER LAX SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW PREVAILS. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER SOUTH AMERICA... AND THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED
SHOWERS FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FROM
N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N55W
TO 23N70W AND DISSIPATING TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N54W TO 21N60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN
51W-55W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N36W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 30N26W TO 27N28W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 25W AS NOTED FROM THE
GOES-R PG DUST IMAGERY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 60W-80W SUPPORTING THE W ATLANTIC
FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF
20N E OF 35W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E TO 30N44W AND EXTEND S TO
20N52W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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