[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
04N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N21W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
S OF 05N BETWEEN 06W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
OFF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLC
PROVIDING THE GULF WITH DRY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 95W BUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE
GULF REGION THIS EVENING. WHILE THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE PROMOTE STABLE CONDITIONS...AT THE SURFACE...A
1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W AND
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A RECENT AFTERNOON ASCAT
PASS CONFIRMS THE OVERALL LIGHT WIND REGIME WHILE THE LAST FEW
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE ENTIRE
BASIN THIS EVENING ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS STEMMING FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
04N40W TO 18N73W. HOWEVER...NORTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND EXTENDS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA FROM 22N79W TO
22N84W. A FEW ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE
BLOSSOMED OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS
DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY WEAKER E-NE TRADES IN
THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN
DUE TO THE FRONTAL TROUGHING PASSING TO THE NORTH OF 20N. AS THE
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE EASTERN
CONUS AND SETTLE IN OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC PROVIDING FOR A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE E-NE TRADES THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO OF
NOTE THIS EVENING...THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE
DAY ALONG WITH GOES-R DUST ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY INDICATE THAT AN
AREA OF AFRICAN DUST STRETCHES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND HAVE
REACHED PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
FROM SAINT VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS HAVE REPORTED HAZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 28N75W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A 998 MB LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 38N67W THAT EXTENDS A COLD FRONT FROM THE
LOW ALONG 32N67W TO 24N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N. A SECONDARY PUSH OF ENERGY IS
ANALYZED NW OF THE FRONT AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 32N74W TO THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR JACKSONVILLE WITH THE MAIN IMPACT OF
SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN CONUS AND SETTLES INTO THE
SW NORTH ATLC THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. FARTHER EAST OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
34N46W. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN NORTH ATLC SUPPORTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
ANALYZED ALONG 32N29W TO 26N40W TO 26N48W. WHILE NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY CONVECTIVE DUE TO LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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