[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE NRN COAST OF
LIBERIA AT 7N11W CONTINUING TO 1N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
1N24W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 27W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT
2S49W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF W AFRICA FROM
1N-4N BETWEEN 5W-9W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 11W-19W...AND FROM EQ-4N
BETWEEN 21W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N81W TO
23N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE
AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO IN THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM
21N91W TO 18N93W CAUSING NO SHOWER ACTIVITY DUE TO STRONG DRY
AIR ALOFT. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS INFLUENCED BY WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW GULF
NEAR 28N94W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE BASIN DUE TO
STRONG DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE MEXICAN COASTLINE AND TEXAS...AND THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS PUSHED INTO THE W ATLC. EXPECT SURFACE
RIDGING TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN TODAY BESIDES A
FEW PATCHES OF SHOWERS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DUE TO A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA TO THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND ALONG A SWATH FROM ERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO 17N81W.
ALOFT...MAINLY SWLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN WITH MODERATE DRY
AIR...WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN THE FAIR CONDITIONS. TRADEWIND
FLOW OF 10-15 KTS IS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS
AROUND THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE
HITTING THE COAST OF PANAMA FLARING UP A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COASTLINE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH GOES-R DUST
ENHANCEMENTS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST HAS REACHED
THE ERN CARIBBEAN WHERE SOME OF THE SURFACE STATIONS ARE
REPORTING DUST. EXPECT THE FRONT OVER CUBA TO DISSIPATE WITH
LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC ALONG 72W SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N70W
CONTINUING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ALONG 27N73W 23N80W
23N84W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 160 NM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT N OF 25N. BESIDES THE MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONT...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA UNDER FAIR
CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG
54W SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR
32N49W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ERN ATLC WITH AXIS FROM
30N29W TO 52N39W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA
NEAR 32N33W TO 26N48W. ISOLATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER
SIDE THE AXIS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC
MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG
WITH GOES-R DUST IMAGERY ENHANCEMENT INDICATE AN AREA OF AFRICAN
DUST EXTENDS S OF 20N FROM THE AFRICAN COAST TO THE ERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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