[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE AT 7N12W TO 3N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N18W
ALONG EQ30W 1N46W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S52W. A CLUSTER
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST OFF THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 8W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-1N BETWEEN 15W-22W...FROM 1N-4N
BETWEEN 32W-41W...AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 48W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPES ACROSS THE NRN GULF
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 31N84W
TO 28N90W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 25N95W. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT
N OF 26N. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF
THE AXIS. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
OVER THE ERN CONUS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN INDIANA NEAR 38N.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SW GULF IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 23N92W TO 18N92W. DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN BESIDES NEAR THE FRONT...NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS OR ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SRN GULF. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE SE PORTION
FROM A SURFACE HIGH IN THE W ATLC. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WRN GULF EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER TODAY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT IN MOSTLY WLY-SWLY FLOW. A FEW
PATCHES OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-18N ACROSS THE BASIN. TRADEWIND FLOW
OF 10-15 KTS IS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH SOME
STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH
NEAR 29N68W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA. AN
APPROACHING FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN GULF IS PRODUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN FLORIDA WHICH WILL LIKELY
EMERGE OVER THE WRN ATLC WATERS SHORTLY. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR
35N67W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG
44W WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING OFF OF IT TOWARDS TO SW
ALONG 31N45W TO 23N73W. THE SHORTWAVE IS SUPPORTING A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 24N49W TO 19N54W SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 42W-53W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE ERN ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 20W. IT SUPPORTS A SURFACE
RIDGE AROUND A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 24N35W. BROAD UPPER
RIDGING ALSO COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR EQ21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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