[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA
...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE AT 8N13W TO 5N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N17W TO
1N30W TO S OF THE EQUATOR AT 1S40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT
3S44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N
BETWEEN 14W-22W...AND FROM 4N-4S BETWEEN 32W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE COAST OF
ALABAMA AT 30N88W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N97W. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE FRONT. PREFRONTAL WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS HOWEVER OVER THE NE GULF FROM 26N-28N
BETWEEN 85W-89W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 27N SUPPORTING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
CONFINED TO THE NE GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO THE NE GULF NEAR 27N86W WITH CONVECTION
OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 20N90W TO
16N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITH 15 NM OF THE TROUGH.  RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 64W-68W. SIMILAR SHOWERS
ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA... E CUBA...AND THE COASTS OF
COSTA RICA AND W PANAMA. ELSEWHERE...RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF
14N AND E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER S MEXICO...
GUATEMALA...AND HONDURAS...AS WELL AS OVER VENEZUELA...AND THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N68W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 27N46W TO 20N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 24N33W. A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF
10N E OF 30W AS NOTED FROM THE GOES-R PG DUST IMAGERY. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 28N54W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS
ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 34N80W TO
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TO DIP S INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO NEAR 28N50W WITH
RAIN AND SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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