[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
06N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N16W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 06N BETWEEN 08W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 23/0900 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM VERMILION BAY
LOUISIANA TO 27N93W TO 24N95W SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF
EASTERN KANSAS. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 29N AND N OF 29N BETWEEN 87W-90W. WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO GRADUALLY FILL AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY IN
SUPPORT OF SURFACE RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD FROM A
PERSISTENT HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND LOOKS FAVORABLE WITH FAIR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE RIDGE...HOWEVER A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SKIRT THE NE GULF COAST E OF 90W LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING
W OF 70W UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT WITHIN WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. E OF 70W...THE SAME UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
ADVECTED AND DRIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS AREA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N E OF
71W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS ALSO
NOTED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM GUADELOUPE TO
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD AND ABC
ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-20 KTS IS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. THE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RELAX IN STRENGTH
AS A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE SW NORTH ATLC OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE PERSISTENT HIGH OVER
THE WESTERN ATLC WEAKENING AND SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 40W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB
HIGH CENTERED WEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N68W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA. AN AREA OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LIKELY
ORIGINATING FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS CURRENTLY
IMPACTING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND AREAS EASTWARD FROM
17N-22N BETWEEN 45W-68W. THE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE
IS SUPPORTED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
ALONG 80W OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR 35N55W. FARTHER EAST...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 32N14W THROUGH 27N33W THEN TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR
AXIS THROUGH 28N50W TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR
28N63W. A REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLIPS THE DISCUSSION
AREA ALONG 28N BETWEEN 20W-40W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED FROM 32N24W TO 28N40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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