[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
04N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N15W TO 01N34W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO
06N BETWEEN 07W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 23/0300 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA AREA TO 27N93W TO 23N94W SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF EASTERN KANSAS. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND N OF 29N BETWEEN 85W-90W. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO GRADUALLY FILL AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY IN SUPPORT OF
SURFACE RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD FROM A PERSISTENT
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS
FAVORABLE WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED DUE TO THE RIDGE...HOWEVER A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SKIRT THE NE GULF COAST E OF 90W LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING
W OF 70W UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT IN WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. E OF 70W...THE SAME UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC AND CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N E OF 70W...INCLUDING
PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS ALSO NOTED OVER
THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM GUADELOUPE TO NORTHERN
COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W..INCLUDING THE WINDWARD AND ABC ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. THE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RELAX IN STRENGTH
AS A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE SW NORTH ATLC AND THE PERSISTENT HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC
WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 40W ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH CENTERED WEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N68W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA. AN AREA OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LIKELY
ORIGINATING FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS CURRENTLY
IMPACTING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND AREAS EASTWARD FROM
17N-22N BETWEEN 40W-70W. THE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE
IS SUPPORTED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
ALONG 81W OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR 35N57W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
32N17W THROUGH 26N40W THEN TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR AXIS THROUGH
27N53W TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 28N63W. A
REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLIPS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG
28N BETWEEN 20W-40W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N28W TO 29N39W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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