[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221734
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 5N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N14W ALONG
4N26W 1N34W 3N43W TO THE BRAZIL COAST AT THE EQUATOR AND 52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND 25W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY
IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 34W-38W...AND FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 45W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE CENTRAL/WRN GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER AT
30N89W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 22N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO INLAND MEXICO AT 18N92W. A LINE OF HEAVY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG THE AXIS N OF 28N AND WITHIN 100
NM TO THE W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM W OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT AXIS AS WELL AS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS
FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 95W-97W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A
CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OKLAHOMA NEAR 37N98W. A NARROW
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ERN GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 82W.
EXCEPT FOR THE MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN IS COVERED BY DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN
FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND NW GULF.
MAINLY SE-S FLOW IS ACROSS THE BASIN BESIDES NEAR THE FRONT WITH
SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS E OF THE FRONT...AND 10-15 KTS W OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NW AND DISSIPATE INTO A
TROUGH AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER TODAY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT IN MOSTLY SWLY FLOW. HOWEVER...AN
AREA OF MOISTURE THAT LIKELY ADVECTED FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
AFTER A FRONT DISSIPATED SEVERAL DAYS AGO IS IMPACTING THE NE
CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA N OF 18N
BETWEEN 58W-73W. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE
FAR SE CORNER N OF VENEZUELA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN HAS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE ISLANDS AND N OF VENEZUELA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH
NEAR 34N68W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA. AN
AREA OF MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED AROUND THE SRN PORTION OF THE
RIDGE LIKELY FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS NOT
IMPACTING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 58W-73W.
THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN
CONUS ALONG 82W AS WELL AS BROAD UPPER RIDGING TO THE N. AN
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE W ATLC
WITH AXIS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 47N35W TO 28N27W THEN
CONTINUING TO THE W ALONG 30N45W TO 42N65W, THE UPPER TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AS WELL A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 32N24W TO 26N28W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200
NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE FAR ERN ATLC IS COVERED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 9W. MAINLY WLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE TROPICAL
ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net