[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
05N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N18W TO 01N32W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W THEN TO 01S45W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 27W-38W...AND
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N40W TO 02N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SLOW MOVING CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA NEAR 36N98W AND SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED
FROM NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO 28N90W TO 22N94W TO 20N94W. MOSAIC
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT N OF 27N THIS MORNING. EAST OF THE FRONT...A PRE-FRONTAL
EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W TO 24N91W. ALSO...MODERATE TO FRESH SE
WINDS PREVAIL AS NOTED ON RECENT SHIP...BUOY...AND OIL PLATFORM
OBSERVATIONS. THESE WINDS WERE ALSO CONFIRMED BY AN EARLIER
21/2314 UTC WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. IN CLOSE PROXIMITY WEST
OF THE FRONT...N-NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY SUNRISE AND CONTINUE ON A WEAKENING
TREND AS THE FRONT BECOMES SURFACE TROUGHING AND FINALLY
ABSORBED AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD FROM THE SW NORTH
ATLC THAT WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MOST OF THE BASIN UNDER
MODERATELY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE. WITH THIS DRY AIR
ALOFT AND A RATHER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE...THE
RESULT AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING IS FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR
SKIES AS NOTED ON SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. A FEW
PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E
OF 70W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS S OF 13N BETWEEN 62W-72W...INCLUDING THE ABC
ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADES WITH
HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COLOMBIA COAST.
THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND UNTIL THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST BY
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN EXPANSIVE 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 34N68W AND
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
WESTERN ATLC W OF 40W. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OVER THIS
AREA IS NE TO E WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 18N-27N
BETWEEN 50W-81W. OTHERWISE...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE EASTERLIES WITH THE
MOST CONCENTRATION OF THIS ACTIVITY E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM
22N-30N BETWEEN 67W-78W...AND FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 49W-73W.
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
32N26W TO 27N50W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N24W TO 30N27W. SURFACE TROUGHING THEN EXTENDS FROM THE
TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO 23N31W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING
WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN S OF 26N E OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 240 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N60W TO 18N20W TO 21N20W WHICH COINCIDES
WITH A STRONG 90-120 KT JET ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net