[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SIERRA LEONE NEAR 5N9W TO
4N15W TO 3N20W AND 3N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N26W...
PASSING THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 36W...TO THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 9W AND 15W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 3N BETWEEN 16W AND 43W...AND IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO
THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 45W AND 57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA
FROM NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL TO FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME FROM
3N TO 2S BETWEEN 49W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. PART OF THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MERGES WITH SEPARATE AND INDEPENDENT
CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN AREA OF BROAD
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ORIGINATES
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAS BEEN COVERING FLORIDA AND ITS COASTAL
WATERS FOR THE LAST 72 HOURS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N
TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 86W IN LINES OF LOW CLOUDS AND CONFLUENT
SURFACE WIND FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1026 MB
ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N68W...
THROUGH 31N88W TO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS...TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
COAST. SOUTHEASTERLY 20 KNOT WINDS ARE TO THE WEST OF 95W
FROM 24N TO 28N...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE OFF FROM NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. THE 24 TO 48 HOUR
FORECASTS INDICATE EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 20 KNOTS TO THE
SOUTH OF 27N/28N...AND SEA HEIGHTS APPROACHING 8 FEET. PLEASE
REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST MIAHSFAT2 FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THIS SITUATION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 17N. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS PART OF
THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW THAT HAS BEEN COVERING THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND
PANAMA...TOWARD PUERTO RICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM
MEXICO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE...
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE SURFACE WIND FLOW IS EASTERLY...MOVING THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WESTWARD EVERYWHERE TO THE EAST OF
70W. THE WIND FLOW TO THE WEST OF 70W IS LARGELY NORTHEASTERLY.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN INLAND AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
20N IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO PANAMA...AS THE CLOUDS REACH
LAND AND POSSIBLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.
CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND
79W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS ARE FOR WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST-
TO-EAST FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
8 TO 11 FEET. 20 KNOT WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 73W AND 85W
WITH SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST MIAHSFAT2 FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THESE SITUATIONS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. CYCLONIC FLOW HAS
BEEN IN THIS AREA MORE OR LESS FOR THE LAST 72 HOURS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THIS AREA ALSO.
ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N71W 26N73W...INTO THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 23N74W...TO THE TIP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N57W 26N58W 23N58W.
THE BASE OF A SEPARATE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REACHES 32N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 53W
AND 56W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N18W TO
27N25W TO 16N27W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 12N TO THE EAST OF 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 23N38W TO 12N45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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