[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE NRN COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 3N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N21 ALONG
2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 40W TO 3S48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
MORNING WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO
MISSISSIPPI. UPPER TROUGHING COVERS THE FAR ERN GULF WITH AXIS E
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN. AT THE
SURFACE...MAINLY SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE W ATLC. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 22N88W TO
17N93W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN BESIDES SOME
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE WRN GULF WHERE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STREAMING TO THE NE AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. 10-15 KT E-SE SURFACE WINDS ARE AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE.
EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN TO DRIFT WWD AS
SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO DRY
AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO COSTA RICA. SOME UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STREAMING OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN AROUND THE E SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE BELOW THE UPPER CLOUDS IN THE SE
CARIBBEAN N OF VENEZUELA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN HAS CLEAR
SKIES BESIDES A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER S OF HAITI AND JAMAICA
AND E OF NICARAGUA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS AROUND THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AMPLE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ARE KEEPING THE FAR WRN ATLC
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW BAHAMAS TO 33N75W CONTINUING TOWARDS
THE NE. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR
33N67W. SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGHS ARE TO EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE
ALL EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN
CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING A PAIR OF
SURFACE TROUGHS. THE FIRST EXTENDS N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 28N73W
TO 23N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE AXIS FROM 23N-28N
BETWEEN 65W-73W. THE SECOND TROUGH IS FARTHER E ALONG 28N55W TO
24N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE AXIS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN
57W-65W...AND E OF THE AXIS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 51W-55W. ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLC...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS S OF 33N WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH N OF 33N WITH AXIS ALONG 47W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS E
OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 34W SUPPORTING A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR
33N43W...AND A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR 42N31W WHICH ARE PROVIDING FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE MADEIRA
AND CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE UPPER TROUGH
IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






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