[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081137
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU MAR 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF NRN
LIBERIA AT 7N11W TO 3N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N14W ALONG
EQ27W EQ40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 2S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN
24W-29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-1N BETWEEN
32W-39W...AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 35W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING
EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND UP
THE ERN SEABOARD. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC. THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER AND ACROSS THE GULF FROM NRN
FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING STRONG SE-S
FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN RANGING FROM 15-20 KTS. DRY AIR ALOFT IS
SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXCEPT
FOR SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE WRN GULF. RADAR IMAGERY
ALSO INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SRN FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND INLAND TEXAS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF
MID-DAY FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING PLEASANT WEATHER THIS
MORNING DUE TO DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...WHICH IS
INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MOST OF
THE BASIN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGES ARE TO EITHER SIDE ALSO ACCOMPANIED
BY DRY AIR. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA REACHING GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A FEW
PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW MOSTLY ACROSS THE NRN
CARIBBEAN. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED N OF VENEZUELA.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ERN SEABOARD
SUPPORTS A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1038 MB HIGH NEAR 37N61W...WHICH IS SUPPORTING STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE W ATLC AND ALONG THE FLORIDA E COAST. A SHEAR
AXIS...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDS AROUND THE RIDGE
ALONG 28N47W 25N61W 24N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AXIS
WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
24N-26N BETWEEN 58W-63W. THIS AREA OF ACTIVITY LIES UNDER THE
DIFFLUENT ERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 65W.
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA N OF THE
SHEAR AXIS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 42W TO THE N OF 33N SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS TO THE DISCUSSION AREA BORDER AT 31N38W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS S OF THIS POINT TO 26N40W. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
ARE NEAR THE AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 41N13W IS
TO THE E SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE E ATLC. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N38W TO 11N42W WITH A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TO THE E CENTERED
NEAR 4N26W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS
SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM NE SOUTH AMERICA TO W
AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






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