[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU MAR 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF NRN
LIBERIA AT 7N11W TO 2N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N14W ALONG
EQ20W 1N36W 1S43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT EXTENDING
FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE SE CONUS.
THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1039 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
HIGH CENTER AND ACROSS THE GULF FROM NRN FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF.
THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING STRONG E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN
RANGING FROM 15-25 KTS. DRY AIR ALOFT IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST WHICH EXTENDS INLAND.
RADAR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SRN FLORIDA
AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING PLEASANT WEATHER TONIGHT
DUE TO DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...WHICH IS INHIBITING ANY
DEEP CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO PANAMA. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGES ARE TO EITHER SIDE ALSO ACCOMPANIES BY DRY AIR.
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REACHING
GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A FEW PATCHES OF
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW MOSTLY ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ERN CONUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1039 MB HIGH NEAR 36N63W...WHICH IS SUPPORTING STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE FLORIDA E COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH TRANSITIONS INTO
A SHEARLINE IN THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N48W 25N63W 25N76W.
LITTLE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE AXIS BESIDES A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 61W-65W.
THIS AREA IS ALSO AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 31N66W TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA N OF THE SHEAR AXIS.
FARTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N39W TO 23N41W WITH
NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 40N35W TO 27N28W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 39N16W IS TO THE E SUPPORTING A SURFACE
RIDGE WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE E
ATLC. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 25N37W TO 13N46W WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA TO THE E TO W AFRICA. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER FROM NE SOUTH AMERICA TO W AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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