[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN MAR 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO A 1008 MB LOW OVER
SRN GUINEA NEAR 10N11W CONTINUING SW TO 1N16W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 1N16W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 18W TO 3S28W TO THE
BRAZIL COAST NEAR 4S40W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 12W-17W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-EQ
BETWEEN 16W-18W...AND FROM 1S-3N BETWEEN 21W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS SITS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OUT OF THE BASIN DURING THE
LAST 6-12 HOURS. SURFACE RIDGING HAS BUILT IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AROUND A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N94W...AND A 1026 MB
HIGH OVER THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 22N97W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE SW GULF.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE...WHICH ARE HELPING SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER THE
SRN GULF IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS
AROUND THE HIGH CENTERS INCREASING IN SPEED RADIALLY AND
REACHING UP TO 20 KTS IN THE SE GULF. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
COVERS THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING THE FRONT THAT MOVED
OUT EARLIER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E ALLOWING
THE UPPER RIDGE TO SHIFT E STRENGTHENING THE SURFACE RIDGING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS REACHED
THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N79W TO
GUATEMALA NEAR 15N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN...ERN
GULF AND ERN CONUS. BESIDES MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONT...THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS BESIDES SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 74W-83W.
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS ACROSS THE ERN AND SW CARIBBEAN
REACHING 30 KTS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH LIKELY SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE AXIS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
OVER THE W ATLC WATER SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N71W EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 27N74W TO 23N79W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE
AXIS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF
30N. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 0600 UTC.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 32N47W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN TO NEAR
45N40W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM
THE AZORES ISLANDS TO E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT SKIMS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG
32N35W TO 30N43W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 4N13W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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