[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042316
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN MAR 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
02N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 21W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 08W-15W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN
18W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
PREVAILS ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THIS EVENING AS WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO FILTER IN A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS. THIS FOLLOWS AS A COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TO THE
EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CURRENTLY THE FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING EAST OF A LINE FROM 25N81W TO 23N82W.
ELSEWHERE A STRONG SURFACE HIGH...ANALYZED AS A 1030 MB HIGH
CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W...CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
BASIN. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALSO NOTED ON THE LAST FEW VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
DIVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SE CONUS BY LATE MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST DIPS A
TROUGH AXIS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO 16N85W. THE TROUGHING
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR
24N81W ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST NEAR
19N87W AND INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM WEST OF THE FRONT N
OF 20N AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 20N. SE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 16N
BETWEEN 77W-83W. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES STRETCH EASTWARD TO
THE LESSER ANTILLES AS STRONG RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT.
AS THE FRONTAL TROUGHING WEAKENS AND MOVES NE OF THE BASIN BY
TUESDAY...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF SURFACE RIDGING TO THE
NORTH OF 20N IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N75W. THE
FRONT CONTINUES SW ALONG 27N78W AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
NEAR 24N81W THEN ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION
TO THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...STRONG S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT GENERATING MODERATE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 6 HOURS. OTHERWISE...STRONG N-NW WINDS FOLLOW TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT AS WELL AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STABLE
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N16W TO 30N33W TO A 1027 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 31N49W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BRIDGES THE RIDGE
AND SLICES INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N38W TO 30N44W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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