[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED IN ORDER
TO BE ALONG 15N48W 10N46W 5N47W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA
DO NOT SHOW A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT THE SURFACE WHERE
ONE WAS ANALYZED SIX HOURS EARLIER. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
EVIDENT IN THE LATEST SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG
44W FROM 11N TO 14N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 44W
AND 51W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE COASTAL BORDERS OF MAURITANIA
AND SENEGAL NEAR 16N16W...TO 13N20W 6N30W AND 4N34W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N34W TO 3N38W AND 6N51W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
3N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE WEST OF 87W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND
A 23N93W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
25N TO 27N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 89W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS OCCURRING FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 97W AND 98W...WITH
UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THE 23N93W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 65W INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N65W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 30N72W 27N78W...CROSSING EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N84W.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 29N70W AND 27N74W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY AT 27N74W AND IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO
25N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 25N79W...ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS...TO 25N84W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W...
TO 25N70W...TO 20N80W AND 16N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N84W.
A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N80W IN CUBA.

NO 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND/OR SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET
OR HIGHER ARE OBSERVED AND/OR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE PART OF CUBA
THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 80W...TOWARD AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA...AND BEYOND THE
ISTHMUS AND GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...PASSING THROUGH 18N62W...ALONG A SHEAR AXIS THAT RUNS
FROM 18N62W TO 18N70W AND 17N81W. THE SHEAR AXIS BECOMES MORE
OF A TROUGH FROM 17N81W TO A 15N84W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS NEAR EXTREME EASTERN HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN
THE JAMAICA CHANNEL...AND SPREADING FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS
INTO CENTRAL GUATEMALA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N/7N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND
85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
9N77W NEAR COLOMBIA TOWARD NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...TO THE WEST
OF THE LINE FROM 9N77W TO 12N80W TO 14N83W...IN A BROAD SURFACE
CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 15N53W TO 11N60W AND 6N67W
IN WEST CENTRAL VENEZUELA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FEET
TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 81W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 65W...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 32N40W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES
FROM 32N40W TO 32N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
32N50W TO A 27N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 21N57W AND
BEYOND 18N62W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N59W 20N64W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W...AND FROM 22N
TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 29N57W 25N65W TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS ACCOMPANYING THE 47W TROPICAL
WAVE...AND THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF
DEBBY...THAT ARE NEAR 33N67W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT







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