[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W FROM 9N TO 14N.
A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANY
THE WAVE...FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND COMPUTER MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
POSITION OF THE WAVE MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED A LITTLE MORE
TO THE WEST FOR THE 29/0600 UTC MAP ANALYSIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE MAURITANIA COAST NEAR 19N16W TO
15N20W 10N25W AND 6N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N33W TO 4N40W
6N49W...CROSSING NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA INTO CENTRAL SURINAME
NEAR 4N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 16W...FROM
6N TO 9N BETWEEN 32W AND 36W...FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 40W AND
43W...AND FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W IN SURINAME AND
IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST
OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE WEST OF 87W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND
A 23N93W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 91W AND 96W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE AREAS OF HIGHER ELEVATION OF
MEXICO...ALONG A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED LINE...
WITH UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AROUND THE 23N93W
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 65W INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 28N77W...CROSSING EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS/SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 24N83W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 29N70W AND 27N73W.
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT 27N73W AND IT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS TO 25N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 25N79W...
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO 23N85W. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 28N85W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W...TO 26N70W TO 21N77W
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA. NO 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS
AND/OR SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET OR HIGHER ARE OBSERVED AND/OR FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE PART OF CUBA
THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 80W...TOWARD AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA...AND BEYOND THE
ISTHMUS AND GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
PASSING THROUGH 18N63W...ALONG A SHEAR AXIS THAT RUNS FROM 18N63W
TO 18N70W AND 17N78W. THE SHEAR AXIS BECOMES MORE OF A TROUGH
FROM 17N78W TO A 15N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALONG 18N BETWEEN
THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE JAMAICA CHANNEL. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...AND BEYOND THE COSTA
RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO 12N BETWEEN 77W
AND LAND...COVERING MOSTLY COSTA RICA AND SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO HAS
BEEN COVERING COSTA RICA AND ITS PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 15N53W TO 11N60W AND 6N67W IN WEST
CENTRAL VENEZUELA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FEET
TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 81W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 65W...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 32N40W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES
FROM 32N40W TO 32N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
32N50W TO A 26N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 21N55W AND
BEYOND 18N63W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N58W 23N61W 21N63W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 46W AND 64W. A SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 29N57W 25N65W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS ACCOMPANYING THE
41W/42W TROPICAL WAVE...AND THE 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF DEBBY...THAT ARE NEAR 33N68W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






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