[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 15N28W
TO 5N31W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 28W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM
15N59W TO 6N60W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 15N57W TO 14N61W
INCLUDING ST. LUCIA.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS BEEN ABSORBED BY A
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SW. SEE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION BELOW.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N16W ALONG 11N18W TO 8N24W. THE ITCZ STARTS W OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N34W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN52W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
TALLAHASSEE TO NEAR 26N87W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT
15/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM APALACHEE BAY NEAR 30N84W THROUGH A
NEWLY FORMED 1012 MB LOW NEAR 29N86W TO 28N90W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF LINE FROM APALACHEE BAY
NEAR 30N83W ALONG 28N89W TO 28N94W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE S GULF S OF 25N PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N92W
TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THIS SURFACE TROUGH ABSORBED THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT
WAS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE GULF WITH A 1016 MB HIGH ANCHORED NEAR 27N90W.
THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE N GULF WILL GRADUALLY SINK SE. THE
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL THEN
CLEAR THE GULF BY EARLY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD S
ACROSS THE E GULF BEHIND THE TROUGH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 67W ANCHORED OVER
EL SALVADOR AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC.
THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO ENHANCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 81W TO INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN. THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO ENHANCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS S OF LINE FROM ANTIGUA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 15N70W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ALONG
11N80W INTO THE E TROPICAL OVER COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF A
LINE FROM 10N75W TO 12N82W. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE
SAT FOLLOWED BY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SUN
THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC BETWEEN 67W-76W SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT THAT AT 15/0900 UTC ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N68W
TO 27N74W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
30/45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS ALONG 55W N OF 22N PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
120/150 NM OF A LINE FROM 31N63W 26N71W TO OVER THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS NEAR 25N79W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC
N OF 30N SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N43W
ALONG 27N48W TO 24N54W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 175 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 29N AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH.
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N24W LEAVING THE E ATLC WITH FAIR
WEATHER THIS MORNING. WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE
TODAY EXTENDING FROM 31N70W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH BY LATE TODAY REACHING FROM A 1011 MB
LOW 31N68W TO 26N76W. THE STATIONARY LOW WILL WEAKEN FURTHER BY
LATE SAT BEFORE DISSIPATING SUN. THE LINGERING TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM 31N68W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS LATE SUN INTO MON AND
FROM 31N67W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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