[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 15N25W TO
5N28W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE A
SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 26W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N57W TO
6N58W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 15N55W
TO 13N61W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 89W S OF 22N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS BEING ABSORBED BY A SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE SW. SEE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION BELOW.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 9N19W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 9N25W
THEN RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N29W ALONG 7N43W TO
10N57W THEN RESUMES W OF THE SECOND WAVE NEAR 9N59W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 30W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN
48W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
PENSACOLA TO THE N/CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT AT 15/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM SW GEORGIA ACROSS
TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO 29N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE S GULF S OF
25N E OF 96W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS OVER S MEXICO IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N E OF 95W TO OVER S
MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF WITH A 1016 MB HIGH ANCHORED NEAR
26N90W. THE N GULF SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SINK SE
CLEARING THE GULF BY EARLY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD S
ACROSS THE E GULF BEHIND THE TROUGH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 68W ANCHORED OVER
NICARAGUA AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC.
THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO ENHANCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 75W TO INLAND
OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN INCLUDING JAMAICA. THE EASTERN UPPER
RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF LINE FROM ANGUILLA IN THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO 15N70W. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WHICH IS INDUCING A
BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG 10N78W TO 12N82W. TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. TROPICAL WAVE OVER WILL REACH
THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 67W SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT AT 15/0300 UTC ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N69W TO
27N75W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 59W FROM 22N TO BEYOND 32N PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 60W-70W. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N43W ALONG 28N47W TO 24N53W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE
TROUGH N OF 30N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N26W
LEAVING THE E ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. W ATLC COLD FRONT
WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM 31N69W TO SE FLORIDA EARLY FRI
THEN WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD AS IT REACHES FROM A 1011 MB LOW
NEAR 30N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH REACHING FROM NE TO SW WHERE IT WILL
LINGER FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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