[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132326
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 16N20W TO
5N23W MOVING W AT 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NEW SURGE OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN
18W-24W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N49W TO 6N50W MOVING W NEAR 15-20
KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. RAIN AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N80W TO 15N82W
MOVING WNW 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-18N BETWEEN 79W-89W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SENEGAL AT 14N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVES FROM
7N26W TO 6N40W TO 8N50W TO GUYANA AT 6N58W. RAIN AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N89W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE
GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND
FLORIDA...AND INLAND LOUISIANA. SIMILAR THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
INLAND S MEXICO BETWEEN 90W-97W. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17N95W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE CENTER IS ENHANCING PRECIPITATION OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER FLORIDA
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.
EXPECT...MORE SHOWERS AND RAIN OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT SIMILAR PRECIPITATION OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND SOUTH MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A 1007 MB
LOW IS ALSO FURTHER S OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 11N82W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN
81W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. FURTHER
S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N
COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 64W-76W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WITH
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS. SIMILAR UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER THE S AND W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM
29N-32N BETWEEN 77W-79W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS FROM 25N75W TO 22N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 68W-76W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 32N49W TO 26N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM 31N47W TO 24N54W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1026 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N30W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 24N BETWEEN
45W-65W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT...
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION E OF THE  BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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