[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1735 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N45W
TO 8N46W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
WEAK SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N79W TO 13N81W
MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. WAVE IS LACKING OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH ONLY
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 8N21W TO 6N30W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N40W 6N50W TO 8N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-13N W OF
55W...FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 36W-43W...AND FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN
15W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO EXTEND NE TO SW ACROSS THE
GULF. LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT SURROUNDS THIS FEATURE ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE LIFTING ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE IS LESS
THAN IMPRESSIVE...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OVER THE AREA. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OFF THE
ERN COAST OF TEXAS E OF 95W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...AROUND
A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N88W. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LINGER IN THE CENTRAL GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE GULF LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE SE AND SW
CORNERS OF THE BASIN ARE PARTICULARLY SATURATED. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA TO OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND SRN
COSTA RICA...GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 74W. SIMILAR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
BASIN FROM THE DEEP TROPICS...ASSOCIATED TO A STREAM OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ ENDING JUST S OF
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NW BASIN
...BUT REMAINS INACTIVE AS IT TRAVELS WESTWARD WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS
UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THE NW CARIBBEAN UNTIL
DISSIPATING OVER THE YUCATAN ON FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ERN CONUS SUPPORTING A
PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COASTS OF THE CAROLINAS...
EXTENDING ALONG 31N80W TO INLAND ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG 30N81W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N
W OF 77W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE NW
BAHAMAS ANALYZED FROM 26N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W. THIS
SYSTEM IS GENERATING SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN
70W-77W. TO THE NE OF THIS SYSTEM...A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR 30N68W KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST ATLC UNDER FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW
ATLC SUPPORTING AN OCCLUDED 1009 MB LOW N OF THE AREA. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO OUR DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N50W TO 26N27W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE ATTACHED TO THE
FRONT AXIS. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LIES A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM  NEAR 31N48W TO 24N54W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS CONVECTIVE AREA
COINCIDES WITH THE STRONGEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUGGESTED ON UPPER
LEVEL WIND MODEL DATA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1027 MB HIGH SW OF
THE AZORES. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL DISSIPATE
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC LATER
THIS EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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