[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N23W 9N24W 5N25W.
ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PART OF THE ITCZ
PRECIPITATION.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N61W 10N62W.
THE WAVE STILL IS ABOUT 270 NM TO THE EAST OF THE CURRENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...THAT PASSES THROUGH 26N42W TO 25N53W...ON TOP OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO 9N70W IN NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATER TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W
AND 66W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDERS OF GUINEA
AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 7N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE CONTINUES FROM 7N26W 4N38W 3N46W...BECOMING
INDISTINCT AFTER 3N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE
FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W AND 15W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 2N TO THE EAST OF 10W...AND FROM
2N TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TOWARD
THE MEXICO GULF COAST ALONG 97W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 27N91W
20N96W SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 94W AND 95W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA INCLUDING PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN
80W AND 88W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 21N69W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...TO 24N83W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...
FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS BETWEEN 83W AND 91W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 78W/79W...FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS...TO 32N IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...OFF THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 26N42W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 25N53W...CROSSING OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...TO 9N70W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...AND 1N71W IN
SOUTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
16N61W 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATER TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W
AND 66W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 9N73W IN COLOMBIA...
TO 9N80W IN PANAMA...AND BEYOND 10N84W IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO
IS OCCURRING IN BELIZE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN MANY
AREAS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO
20N70W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A COLD FRONT REACHES 30N60W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N60W TO A 1007 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N71W. THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 32N71W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA COAST. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 66W AND 80W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
34N22W TO 30N29W TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
29N36W...TO 26N47W...THROUGH 21N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...TO 24N83W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...FOR 20 KNOT WINDS THAT ARE RELATED TO A WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG
31N...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 19N BETWEEN 35W AND 61W FOR
TRADEWIND FLOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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