[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N21W 8N23W 5N24W.
ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PART OF THE ITCZ
PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N58W 9N61W JUST TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. THE WAVE
STILL IS ABOUT 300 NM TO THE EAST OF THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 26N42W TO 25N53W...ON TOP OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO 9N70W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IN A FEW CELLS IS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 63W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE COVERING THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN
55W AND 66W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR
14N17W 10N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE CONTINUES FROM
7N25W 5N33W 5N43W 5N50W...TO NORTHEASTERN SURINAME NEAR 6N55W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE EAST OF 6W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 9N BETWEEN 13W AND
60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE
FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 8W AND 13W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 99W FROM MEXICO BEYOND EAST
TEXAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 27N91W 22N95W SURFACE TROUGH.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 23N TO 26N
BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
TO THE EAST OF 90W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE MEXICO COASTAL
PLAINS...FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...TO THE SOUTH OF 22N.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 23N68W TO 23N82W IN CUBA.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
BETWEEN 83W AND 88W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 80W...FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...ACROSS CUBA...TO 32N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 26N42W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 25N53W...CROSSING OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO 9N70W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...AND 1N71W
IN SOUTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN A FEW CELLS IS FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 62W AND 63W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS ELSEWHERE COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 55W AND 66W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 9N74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 10N85W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA
RICA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA TO THE AREA OF NORTHWESTERN
NICARAGUA/EL SALVADOR AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO 24N74W. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W
31N66W...TO A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N74W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N74W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 70W AND
80W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO A 1027 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N40W TO 26N51W 23N60W...
TO CUBA NEAR 23N82W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...FOR 20 KNOT WINDS THAT ARE RELATED TO A WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN
35W AND 61W FOR TRADEWIND FLOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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