[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031118
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N36W TO 5N41W MOVING W NEAR 10-15
KT. WAVE IS N OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATING A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURROUNDING
THE WAVE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 7N19W TO 5N23W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES
ALONG 3N32W TO 2N45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N51W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 9N E OF 16W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN
INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF SW AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE FAR NE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT AT 03/0900
UTC THAT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC CROSSING CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
MELBOURNE WHERE IT BECOMES A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT AS IT
ENTERS THE GULF NEAR SARASOTA CONTINUING TO 27N85W. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
OVER THE FAR NE GULF LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT. A WEAK 1017 MB IS NW OF THE FRONT NEAR 28N87W. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED
IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS COAST. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE S GULF AND COUPLED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 03/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM 23N91W TO S
MEXICO NEAR 17N94W ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N BETWEEN 94W-97W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N E OF 86W THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND OVER CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE GULF WILL SHIFT SE TO
THE SE GULF TODAY THEN MEANDER THROUGH THU WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING NW TO THE NE TEXAS COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER HIGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NEAR 15N83W
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NNW THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH A SECOND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE INTO THE W
ATLC OVER E CUBA. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75
NM OF LINE FROM COLOMBIA AND PANAMA NEAR 8N77W ALONG 12N81W TO
17N85W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN INTO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 85W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS GUADELOUPE TO THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA JUST E OF THE ABC ISLANDS. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC IS
PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN GENERATING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN AND FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E CONUS AND NE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 71W SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT AT 03/0900 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N73W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
MELBOURNE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER A PORTION OF THE W ATLC LIMITING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO A A SMALL CLUSTER
OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT BETWEEN
75W-78W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS E CUBA TO OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ALONG
25N68W TO BEYOND 32N61W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ON THE W SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
INLAND OVER W CUBA AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA W
OF 77W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE W ATLC WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
FROM 27N71W TO BEYOND 32N67W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC EXPENDING S TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N44W ALONG 31N49W TO BEYOND 32N57W AND
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 33N41W ALONG 28N49W TO 28N55W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60 NM E OF THE TROUGH E OF 50W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E
ATLC ANCHORED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N31W. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 29N23W
EXTENDING A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS S OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT/
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 22N57W CONTINUING W
OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO CUBA NEAR 22N77W. W ATLC COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP E N OF 27N THROUGH MON NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE W ATLC N OF 30N LATE TUE THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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