[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N35W TO 4N39W MOVING W NEAR 10-15
KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY N OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATING AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SURROUNDING THE WAVE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N15W ALONG 6N19W TO 3N25W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES
ALONG 3N28W TO 5N38W. IT RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
4N41W TO S OF THE EQUATOR AND INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 12W ACROSS
THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT AT 03/0300
UTC THAT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC CROSSING CENTRAL FLORIDA
BETWEEN DAYTONA BEACH AND TAMPA WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AS
IT ENTERS THE GULF CONTINUING TO 27N87W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE NE
GULF LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE SE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 25N80W TO 23N83W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N E OF 85W TO
OVER CUBA. A WEAK 1015 MB IS NW OF THE FRONT NEAR 29N87W. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED
IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE N YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE TEXAS COAST. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE SW GULF AND COUPLED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT AT 03/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM 23N89W TO S MEXICO NEAR
18N93W ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SE OF THE TROUGH TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE GULF WILL SHIFT SE
TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUN THEN MEANDER THROUGH THU WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING NW TO THE NE TEXAS COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS NW OVER THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH A SECOND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE INTO THE W ATLC
OVER E CUBA. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING IS GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N W OF
84W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS GUADELOUPE TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA JUST
E OF THE ABC ISLANDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W AND CENTRAL
ATLC IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN GENERATING
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN AND FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E CONUS AND NE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 71W SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT AT 03/0300 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N76W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER A PORTION OF THE W ATLC
LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS E CUBA TO
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ALONG 26N68W TO BEYOND 32N63W.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE COUPLED WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INLAND OVER E CUBA AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG
THE N COAST OF CUBA W OF 74W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE W ATLC WITHIN 90/120
NM OF LINE FROM 27N73W TO 31N69W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC EXPENDING S INTO THE E CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N45W ALONG 29N50W TO 28N58W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF
THE TROUGH E OF 54W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
ANCHORED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N31W. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 26N29W
EXTENDING A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS S OF THE CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE
TROUGH THROUGH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 23N59W CONTINUING W TO THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N78W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E N OF
27N THROUGH MON NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
WATERS N OF 30N LATE TUE THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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