[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 21N57W TO
10N59W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 11N-19N INCLUDING THE
LESSER ANTILLES. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 14N-18N.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N78W TO
11N78W MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW
AMPLITUDE WEAK SURGE OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/DEEP
CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N15W EXTENDING ALONG 9N26W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW
NEAR 9N34W TO 6N43W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 6N50W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN
22W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 40W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF N OF 25N AND IS ANCHORED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH ONE CENTERED IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N81W AND EXTENDING AN
UPPER TROUGH W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW JUST INLAND OVER MEXICO
NEAR 22N99W. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 91W-94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N BETWEEN 84W-90W. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH A 1018
MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W TO GULF W COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE THROUGH THU AND W OF
AREA FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA/COAST OF CUBA
COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 74W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N W OF 78W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN
ALONG 10N80W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER COSTA RICA NEAR
11N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE BEING
DRAWN NW DUE TO THE UPPER FLOW AND COVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SW OF
A LINE FROM 15N83W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. THE ACTIVITY OVER E
CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE
JUST E OF THE ISLANDS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH W CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY AND TUE THEN W OF
BASIN WED. SECOND STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES WILL MOVE INTO E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT PASSING THROUGH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE TUE AND WED THEN THROUGH W CARIBBEAN THU
AND FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC DRAPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N BETWEEN 78W-80W AND N OF 31N W OF 74W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. TO THE E IS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE N OF
27N. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 32N28W THROUGH
A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS CENTERED NEAR 27N41W...25N69W...TO THE
UPPER LOWS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 66W-73W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N
BETWEEN 79W-83W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 43W-50W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A
1021 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N56W ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E
ATLC WITH A WEAK 1018 MB LOW BETWEEN THE RIDGES CENTERED NEAR
31N44W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIFT N TO 28N LATER TODAY AND
ALONG 29N TUE THEN SHIFT BACK S AGAIN ON WED AND THU. THE
TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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