[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 21N56W TO
11N58W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75
NM OF LINE FROM 16N59W TO OVER THE ISLANDS NEAR DOMINICA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE
AREA FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 53W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N77W TO
10N76W MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW
AMPLITUDE WEAK SURGE OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/DEEP
CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N16W EXTENDING ALONG 12N21W 11N29W THROUGH A 1009 MB
LOW NEAR 10N33W TO 7N42W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 6N48W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN
22W-25W AND FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 32W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF N OF 25N AND IS ANCHORED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH ONE CENTERED IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. THIS IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN AND IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN
91W-93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE N
GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 86W-93W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W
ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 26N87W
TO S TEXAS NEAR THE BORDER OF MEXICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRI. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE S GULF TUE
THROUGH THU AND W OF THE AREA FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 73W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N W OF 76W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA...CUBA...HONDURAS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A NARROW
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO NICARAGUA NEAR
13N84W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE BEING DRAWN NW DUE TO THE UPPER FLOW AND
COVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SW OF A LINE FROM 15N83W TO OVER PANAMA
NEAR 9N79W. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS DUE TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE ISLANDS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL
WAVE WILL CONTINUE W AND MOVE THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN MON AND
TUE THEN W OF THE AREA WED. TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT PASSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE TUE AND WED THEN THROUGH THE
W CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC DRAPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 31N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA. TO THE E IS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE N OF 28N. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 32N30W THROUGH A SERIES OF
UPPER LOWS CENTERED NEAR 27N41W...25N65W...TO THE UPPER LOWS IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 42W-49W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N55W
THROUGH A 1020 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 29N71W CONTINUING W
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL LIFT N TO 28N MON AND ALONG 29N TUE THEN SHIFT BACK S
AGAIN ON WED AND THU. THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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