[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241123
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1010 MB LOW WAS ADDED TO THE 24/0600 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG THE
COAST OF AFRICA NEAR THE BORDER OF SENEGAL/GUINEA BISSAU.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS
THE AREA FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 17W-25W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
21N34W TO 13N37W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 18N642W TO
11N66W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ALLOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 12N60W ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 15N69W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 74W/75W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRIER AIR AS DEPICTED
ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY MASKING THE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA THROUGH THE 1010 MB
LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE CONTINUING INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG
12N20W 13N31W TO 8N43W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 8N53W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N12N BETWEEN 52W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 24N96W TO NEAR GALVESTON TEXAS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 23N W OF 90W. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF S MEXICO AND THE W BAY OF
CAMPECHE AT 24/0900 UTC FROM 18N93W ALONG 19.95W TO 21N97W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED
NEAR 26N86W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS AT 24/0900 UTC FROM NEAR
TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 26N87W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 83W-88W. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD WESTWARD ALONG 26N THROUGH FRI. N PORTION OF TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU
AND FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS TO OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 70W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. THIS IS
LEAVING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 13N80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 20N W OF 85W TO
THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N. THE
ACTIVITY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN
THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER MOST OF
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS W CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN INTO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THU. E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS E
CARIBBEAN WED AND THU AND THE W CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND N CARIBBEAN COVERS
THE W ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N56W TO NEAR 20N71W SUPPORTING A LOW/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N58W TO 26N65W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE E ATLC AND A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES THROUGH A 1023 MB
HIGH NEAR 30N39W ALONG 26N58W TO A SECOND 1022 MB HIGH NEAR
28N70W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH GIVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SAHARAN DUST COVERING
MOST OF THE ATLC BASIN CONTINUING TO BE DIFFUSE. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT S THROUGH THU AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE US EAST COAST N OF 30N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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