[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
20N31W TO 13N36W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 18N62W TO
9N64W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 12N59W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO
15N67W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 74W/75W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRIER AIR AS DEPICTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY MASKING THE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 10N18W 13N29W TO 9N41W WHERE THE ITCZ
CONTINUES ALONG 10N55W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N E OF 20W TO
INLAND OVER W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 6N-14N
BETWEEN 13W-23W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 50W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 24N95W TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 24/0300 UTC EXTENDING FROM
21N92W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N BETWEEN 89W-94W. AN
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED NEAR
27N86W. THE 1018 MB SURFACE LOW HAS WEAKENED INTO A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS AT 24/0300 UTC FROM THE FLORIDA COAST IN THE
APALACHEE BAY NEAR 30N84W TO 25N88W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE S GULF S OF 24N BETWEEN 84W-97W. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL REBUILD SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 26N TUE THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS TO OVER THE N
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 70W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. THIS IS
LEAVING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NEAR
10N75W TO 17N81W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF
LINE FROM THE W TIP OF CUBA NEAR 22N84W ALONG 15N83W TO PANAMA
NEAR 9N80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR
WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC BASIN WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS W CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. E
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND
W CARIBBEAN THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND N CARIBBEAN COVERS
THE W ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N58W TO NEAR 20N70W SUPPORTING A LOW/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
N OF 29N BETWEEN 58W-65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED
BY A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 24N24W AND A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE E ATLC AND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 35N30W
TO A SECOND 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 31N41W ALONG 26N56W TO A THIRD
1024 MB HIGH NEAR 28N71W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
SAINT AUGUSTINE GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER
AGAIN TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SAHARAN
DUST COVERING MOST OF THE ATLC BASIN BUT IS BEGINNING TO BECOME
DIFFUSE. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S THROUGH THU AS WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSES N OF AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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